Dr. Florian Jehn demonstrates the size of the temperature range that is considered in the various IPCC scenarios (Photo: F. Jehn)
“The current scientific discourse on climate change focuses on the temperature range that we would like to achieve. We were able to show this by systematically evaluating the reports from the IPCC using text analysis ”, says the lead scientist of the study, Dr. Florian Jehn (JLU/iFZ Landscape, Water and Biogeochemical Cycles Group). “It turned out that almost all the scenarios examined assume a warming of plus 1.5 degrees Celsius to plus 2 degrees Celsius. There is little research for temperature ranges above this. However, current projections show that a warming of the earth by 3 degrees Celsius is quite likely. ”There are also scenarios that even predict a warming of 4 or 5 degrees Celsius or even more. That is why it is important to deal with extreme climate scenarios in research in order to be prepared for the future.
Florian U Jehn, Marie Schneider, Jason R Wang, Luke Kemp and Lutz Breuer: Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research. Environ. Res. Lett. 16 (2021) 084036, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac13ef
For more information:
Dr. Florian Jehn, Prof. Dr. Lutz Breuer, Landscape, Water and Biogeochemical Cycles