Impacts of compound weather extremes on crops in Germany: present and future (CROP)
Florian Ellsäßer (Post Doc)
Lorine Behr (PhD student)
- The Network in brief
CROP will deliver a comprehensive comparison of different approaches to model climate and crops (focusing on compound weather extremes) at the subnational level in Germany at various temporal scales. It proposes an innovative integrated approach to better understand and characterise the impacts of compound extreme events. CROP will generate new high-resolution data sets, based on best-performing hybrid approaches to bias-correct model simulations and downscale them to relevant spatio-temporal scales for the assessment of extreme weather impacts on crop yield in terms of variability and losses.
- Derivation of compound extremes from statistical models related to different irrigated and rainfed crops at subnational scale
- Validation of process-based crop models for different irrigated and rainfed crops
- Combination of statistical and process-based crop models to improve understanding of compound extremes on yield variability & losses in Germany and adjacent countries
- Bias-correction and downscaling of meteorological variables from seasonal climate predictions and climate projections to assess statistical significance of future extreme weather impacts on crop yield
The information on how crops are affected by compound extremes is relevant for various applications including agriculture, food safety and security and the economic sector. A better understanding of how compound extremes influence crop production sets the basis for the development of an integrated seasonal crop yield forecasting system, an important and accurate tool to inform end-users. The results will be of relevance for climate change impact assessments, to guide extension services and for policy makers to reduce market volatility, avoid price spikes and support crop breeding efforts. The Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, regional agricultural agencies and institutions/researchers in phenological applications and modelling will be interested in the project results.
CROP is embedded into Module C “Impacts of extreme weather and climate events on natural and socio-economic systems” and the coordinated research plan of the BMBF program “ClimXtreme” (Klimawandel und Extremereignisse). The expected overall outcome of ClimXtreme is the generation of climate knowledge required for an improved assessment of extreme weather events that produce impact relevant events in Central Europe during the last century as well as for the future. This will be done in four Modules concentrating on Physical Processes (Module A), Statistical Aspects (Module B), the Impact View (Module C) and observational and simulation data sets (Module D). Thereby, Module C focusses on meteorological extreme events producing impacts on the natural and socio-economic system.
Within Module C, CROP is well connected with other projects: CROP and EXIMO (Extreme climate impacts interacting across sectors) both investigate the impacts of climate extremes on agriculture. Furthermore, CROP also takes precipitation anomalies into account and will exchange information on the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes with FLOOD (Linking extremes, large-scale river floods and their impact in central Europe to climate and weather mechanisms), CARLOFF (Convective atmospheres: linking radar-based event descriptors and losses from flash floods) and LASLI (Landslides in a changing climate).
For more information about “ClimXtreme” and the variety of projects within Modules A to D, please visit the program website. https://www.climxtreme.de/
Participating institutions (Module C)
Freie Universität Berlin (FUB), Institute for Meteorology
- Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich, Dr. Nico Becker, Dr. Katrin Nissen
Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg (ALU)
- Prof. Dr. Hanewinkel
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
- Jan Keller
Deutsches Geo-Forschungs-Zentrum (GFZ)
- Prof. Dr. Bruno Merz, Dr. Sergiy Vorogushyn, PD Dr. Heidi Kreibich
- Stefan Kollet
- Dr. Elena Xoplaki, Prof. Jürg Luterbacher
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO)
- Harald Kunstmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- Dr. Christoph Müller, Prof. Dieter Gerten
Technische Universität Dresden
- Prof. Dr. C. Bernhofer, Prof. Dr. K.-H. Feger
- Dr. M. Heistermann, Dr. G. Bürger, and Prof. Dr. A. Thieken
- Prof. Dr. Bodo Damm