"Pilot-Region Kaliningrad"?
Participatory Research on Conflict Prevention
Outline of the project
Nowadays, the insight is widely shared that international conflict prevention is the more successful the earlier it starts. However, the knowledge on how pre-escalation prevention actually works is still rather limited. The project strives for narrowing this gap of knowledge. Further, the project wants to support the attempts to address the problems of Russia's Kaliningrad exclave constructively and in the spirit of a peaceful relationship between Russia and the Europe of the EU.
Indications are numerous that within the Kaliningrad region and with respect to it a broad variety of internal, bilateral and international tensions mount up and form a "syndrome of conflict". It includes elements of differing quality and importance, such as the region's complicate history, its relationship with the federal centre, fears about a "Re-Germanization", a tendency of alienation from Russia, the economic and social development, military affairs and issues of security politics, matters concerning the rule of law and the situation of migrants and minorities, organised crime, Aids, differences with neighbouring cultures, transit and visa issues as well as all those problems stemming from the envisaged enlargement of the EU and its Schengen regime which will make the region an enclave to the EU.
Kaliningrad is subject to a high pressure of change; at the same time it is also true that any change holds the danger of tensions and conflicts being - unintentionally - aggravated. At present a window of opportunity seems to open in European politics to develop sustainable solutions for Kaliningrad's complicate situation. President Putin suggested to develop the region as a "pilot-region" for the EU-Russia relations. However, at the same time also the danger remains that the "syndrome of conflict" surrounding Kaliningrad may get out of control and escalate horizontally and vertically.
Such assessments cause the research questions guiding the project:
- How do international actors act, when they are aware (or can be aware) that a political constellation bears a potential for escalation into a mode of confrontation?
- To which extent do they take advantage of the opportunities for conflict prevention which exist today within the European context?
- How can peace research contribute to the strengthening of proactive action?
Causes and subject matters of conflict: Which issues are subject to the "syndrome of conflict"? How does it develop? Which problems are articulated by whom and what can the actors know about them? What is done and what could be done in terms of identifying and implementing solutions?
Actors: Who is an actor in the field? What determines the Kaliningrad policies of Russia, the remaining Baltic Sea states, and Belarus as well as the more remote states, e.g. Great Britain, the USA, and France? What are the policies with respect to Kaliningrad tracked by international organizations, such as the OSCE, the CoE, the EU, the CBSS and NATO? Which role do transnational economic and societal actors as well as sub-state actors (BSSSC, UBC, Euroregions) play? Which interests do the actors track in the context of their Kaliningrad related policies? How do they perceive the overall development and do they acknowledge a need for preventive conduct?
Interrelations among the actors and their division of labour: In what respect do actors concur or conflict in their assessments of the political situation? Do the actors co-operate and how coherent are their strategies? Are they interdependent? What allows them and what hinders them to co-ordinate.
The fate of the Russian proposal to develop the Kaliningrad Oblast as a pilot-region in the relationship between Russia and the EU provides the point of departure of the research endeavour. Initially it will be considered to what respect the actors are able to develop a common understanding of the situation and to agree on an agenda as well as on effective measures to be taken.
The project is conducted by Hanne-Margret Birckenbach and Christian Wellmann as a part of SHIP's umbrella project "Forging Links" - Russia, the Baltic Sea Co-operation, and the Future of European Integration. The project is co-financed out of SHIP's regular budget and by a grant provided by the Berghof-Foudation for Conflict Research.